Job losses and reduced course offerings are likely as Norwegian universities enter an ¡°entirely new economic reality¡± after years of increasing budgets, sector leaders have warned.

Erika Torgersen, a senior executive at the University of Stavanger (Uis), said institutions were ¡°seeing a real decline in the funding allocations to the university and college sector¡±.

¡°The past few years have been characterised by growth and progress, with many [universities] also having access to accumulated funds,¡± she said. ¡°That is definitely no longer the case now.¡±

Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU) rector Tor Grande told?Times Higher Education?that the mood across the sector was bleak. ¡°There¡¯s a general feeling that people are really concerned,¡± he said. ¡°Not only faculty and students, but also leadership.¡±

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Norway¡¯s December budget saw cuts of NKr50 million?to a grant compensating universities for inflation and wage growth, a move Sunniva Whittaker, chair of Universities Norway, described as ¡°a bad signal¡±. Next year, a??will take effect, ending rewards for institutions that win external grants and publish widely.

As a research-intensive university, UiS ¡°will be hit particularly hard¡± by the new system, Ms Torgersen said. ¡°In the future, government funding will be more heavily directed towards education, at the expense of research. This means that a larger portion of our resources must be used for education, leaving fewer resources for research.¡±

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University leaders do not anticipate a boost from the government any time soon. ¡°There are other areas that are higher priorities,¡± said Professor Grande. In the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, he said, ¡°an increased defence budget is obviously a priority, especially in Norway¡±.

At NTNU, Norway¡¯s largest university, job cuts are on the horizon. ¡°Seventy per cent of the cost picture at universities in Norway is salary,¡± Professor Grande said. ¡°The most obvious thing is that people who retire will not be replaced. In some cases, we¡¯ll have to be more specific, and there has been discussion of people voluntarily leaving. In the worst cases, we might have to fire people.¡±

Demographic shifts are expected to compound the economic pressure. ¡°The number of students will decline, and funding to universities is linked to the number of students. That means we have to forecast how we [will be] doing as an institution to estimate our future income,¡± Professor Grande said. ¡°The institutions that are least successful in recruiting students will suffer the most.¡±

UiS will also ¡°undergo a significant financial restructuring in the coming years¡±, Ms Torgersen said, with this year¡¯s budget reduced by NKr80 million and total cuts by 2026 expected to reach NKr200 million. Staff cuts, ¡°preferably by natural attrition¡±, will be necessary; ¡°this will affect the remaining employees, who may experience increased workload¡±, she added.

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The university is expected to terminate rental contracts, concentrating staff at the main Ullandhaug campus. ¡°We will also have to make changes to our study portfolio,¡± she said.

NTNU, too, could see its course offering impacted, according to Professor Grande. ¡°In some cases, we can do things more efficiently, so we don¡¯t really need to reduce the number of study programmes,¡± he said. ¡°In extreme cases, we might have to close down study programmes in order to concentrate our efforts.¡±

Perhaps the biggest concern among academics, the NTNU rector said, was the preservation of Norway¡¯s scientific competitiveness throughout lean economic times.

¡°This is maybe the issue which most of the faculty is concerned with: does this affect our ability to still be at the forefront of research?¡± he said.

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emily.dixon@timeshighereducation.com